Trade in Shadow ASEAN-China Trade Relations amidst South China Sea Conflicts [before doctoral defense]

Abstract

Conflict and cooperation have been among core debates in International Political Economy and International Relations. Classical and neorealists tend to treat conflict as a disruptive force that undermines cooperation and elevates security considerations above economic rationality (Mearsheimer, 2001; Waltz, 1979). Unresolved territorial disputes, from this perspective, should generate uncertainty and ultimately suppress trade. Liberal and institutionalist traditions, by contrast, suggest economic interdependence can restrain conflict (Keohane, 1989; Moravcsik, 1997). It does so by increasing the opportunity costs of escalation and by embedding state behavior within institutional frameworks that reward cooperation. Yet, despite long theoretical debate, the empirical stance of conflict-trade relations remains contested. The relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China present a particular puzzle within this debate. Their relationship is defined by a paradox where there exists two parallel yet contradictory realities.